ODDS CHANGES
If you usually place online bets, then you have definitely noticed that the pre-match odds can drastically change from the moment they are added to the betting offer until the very last moment before the start of the event. Here are some of the reasons for this thing to happen and details on how we can take advantage of these changes.
When bookies set the start-up odds, let's say for a football event with 1 one week before playing, they basically calculate the real winning chances by using several statistics, tools or instruments which are different from bookmaker to bookmaker. Each has its method/source for calculating, but basically all odds point to a visible outcome, even if there are slight differences. For example, Pinnacle can offer odds of 1.42 for Real Madrid to win, while Bet365 can offer only 1.32. Even if there are differences in odds (e.g. because of the lower fees charged by a specific bookie), the probability of winning is the same for all: Real Madrid is seen as favorite, the team with the highest chances of winning the match.
Now, the interesting part comes when the odds offered by a bookie for a team/player start changing before the match begins. One of the reasons for this to happen is also the easiest to understand: bookmakers can discover some information that can change the winning chances of a team/player. For example, a tennis player can have an injury just before the start of the match - not so severe in order for him not to play but enough for the player not to be at 100% capacity.
Second Example: if some key players from a football team are announced as unavailable to play in a match, then it's very clear that the probability of that team winning the match will decrease. This type of information can make bookmakers lower the chances for that player/team to win and therefore the odds.
Another reason for dropping odds is placing large amounts of money on a specific bet. For example, if Aston Villa plays against Everton and most bettors bet high amounts of money on Aston Villa to win, then the bookies will definitely lower the winning odds for Aston Villa. Some bettors use this information to their advantage: they carefully analyze the odds evolution of a sporting event from the start and if they notice high dropouts - they immediately place bets on that specific team.
There can also be many other reasons, such as:
o corruption revealed (in some football leagues there can be discovered fixed matches before the start);
o more liquidity available at bookmakers
o financial issues at some specific teams
o tricks from the bookies to make a specific bet to be more tempting for the bettors (and that's why it's best to place late bets on such events)
In some cases we can clearly see the reasons for odds changes, while in some cases we can't, but the point is to try and use this information to our advantage and increase our chances of winning by analyzing the sporting event we want to bet on.
You may also want to read the following:
Sports stats and results
Betting strategies
Common mistakes in betting
